25.9 tons sounds like a lot, heavy even. It is as heavy as 10 large sport utility vehicles, 5 African bull elephants or two school buses full of students.

In the year 2000, economic activity in Australia resulted in the release of 25.9 tons in CO2 equivalents of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere for every person in the country. At the time this was the largest per capita emission outside the oil producing countries (5th on the global list) and 3 tons more than the average American citizen.

25.9 tons per person is an interesting statistic for a country where the citizens love the outdoors and claim to be environmentally friendly.

Electricity generation from burning coal energy explains most of this figure. A third of the 2000 greenhouse emissions came from 24 coal-fired power stations, a proportion that has increased as energy use has increased.

Recently the Australian government has proposed an emissions trading scheme, known now as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, as a foundation for sustained emissions reductions. The proposal is that the CPRS will promote reductions through introduction of technology that makes the coal powered stations clean, then later a switch to alternative energy sources.

The CPRS will help achieve the overall target to reduce emissions to 60% below 2000 level by 2050.

The proposal is that this target be reached gradually. Consequently there is a more tractable interim target of 5% below 2000 levels by 2020.

What will this mean per person?

First the population of Australia is projected to grow from the 19 million in 2000 to 25 million by 2020, and 28 million by 2050. So to reach the targets each Australian in 2020 will have to emit less than 18.8 tons and by 2050 less than 7.1 tons.

This is a 27% reduction in a little over a decade, then push on to a 73% reduction by the middle of the century. This is a challenging prospect.

There is more. Historically energy use by Australians has grown at 2-4% per annum, doubling every 30 years. So whilst these emission reductions are set, so consumption is set to double. To have any hope, the modes of energy production will have to be clean sooner rather than later.

Australia, along with other developed economies, will rely on markets to achieve this adjustment. That is the trading schemes will send a price signal strong enough to shift businesses away from high carbon emission activity and investment towards clean energy alternatives.

This is a huge leap of faith given the magnitude of the task.

The recent behavior of global markets and the questions being asked of the financial systems that underpin them, make the task of emission reduction through market mechanisms seem harder still.

I will switch off the computer now. Every little helps.
J. Mark Dangerfield, PhD
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